Recently Trillium’s owner Lee Maschler was asked to comment on trends in electronic trading for Bobsguide. Lee’s remarks were featured in an article available here, but we thought you might find his unexcerpted answers to be of interest:
- How has electronic trading developed in recent years?
I think it has matured from a disruptive to an incumbent technology, one that needs to handle all of the mature aspects of an incumbent business. This includes data protection, by which I mean protecting client information from cyber-attacks. There’s also an extraordinary amount of data, and new methods such as offsite and co-located hosting that have been set up to handle it.
One of the biggest trends that continues to be top of everyone’s mind is speed. While you don’t necessarily need to be the fastest, you certainly can’t be the slowest.
- After the emergence of dark pools, do you think that banks will tackle problems arising from private share trading venues?
I do. There are banks that offer their own dark pools while others are large clients to dark pools. While there are benefits to both approaches, as with any business, there are going to be challenges. As dark pools continue to evolve, they are going to continue to change and make the markets more efficient.
- What changes should be made to improve market control in times of extreme volatility?
For starters, I think we need to define extreme volatility. Is it a naturally occurring phenomenon or an unnatural phenomenon that needs to be regulated or in some way mitigated?
Markets are complex systems, I think volatility of the sort we saw in 1987, 1998 or 2008 will return. I believe it’s natural. We should build our systems to prepare for extreme volatility as opposed to trying to prevent it.
- Do you think the implementation of blockchain technology would get rid of the cost and hassle of trading?
I have a small objection to the phrase “cost and hassle” of trading. I don’t think that trading in 2016 is all that costly or that much of a burden on market participants or end clients.
I believe saying that blockchain is the solution to everything is a bit naïve. As Wall Street decides how it wants to move from a T+3 to a T+1 or near-real time processing environment, it needs to examine all options either through a competitive or collaborative process. Blockchain should definitely be in the conversation, but it’s definitely not the only option.
- Will blockchain minimize trading risk?
Maybe. I think that blockchain’s a solution looking for a problem, especially in the U.S. equity market. Here there’s no outside trading risk that isn’t already handled and managed pretty effectively. Can blockchain help? Maybe. There are other areas of the world where they are building out new technology, such Australia’s new post-trade clearance system, where it might help. Here in America, it’s far from the only potential solution.
- How are new players affecting the traditional trading industry?
In any mature business, especially in one as large as the trading industry, there are going to be new entrants. They are going to be nimble and work hard. There are some that are going to be incorporated into the market. And there are players that have robust ideas that won’t find a market. I think all three are coming into the market.
There are some entrants affecting new markets. IEX is one of them. Ultimately do I think the IEX trading application will have a seismic effect on the market? No, but I think the conversation they are encouraging is an important one. Ultimately it’s a tempest in a teapot.
- Do you see a future for computer driven trading systems?
Absolutely. I see a future for computer-driven systems, neural networks and machine learning across the entire range of operations and support in the trading space. The exchanges are going to be using them to make their matching engines better, faster and more efficient. Large retail brokers are using computer-driven trading systems to allocate their shares across investments, including with robo-advisers.
This is important and exciting as it is going to make markets more liquid, more transparent and ultimately less costly.
- Will machine learning technology eradicate human traders?
No, but it will augment the current role of human traders. There will always be a place on Wall Street for human traders.
At Trillium, we invest in human traders and the technology to support them. The rumors of the death of the trader have been greatly exaggerated. There have been changes in the industry. We’ve seen the role of the market maker move from human to automatic trader in the past few years.
Since 2001, we have changed, we have adopted and we have thrived. Now it’s 2016 and we’re thriving in a market that supposedly dominated by computers.
Lee is the owner of Trillium Management, a premier proprietary trading and technology firm. He’s also co-founder of Lion Cave capital, a proprietary trading firm operated by a world-class team of computer scientists. He’s a visiting lecturer on equity market micro-structure at Cornell University.
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